Documentary examines possibility of US dollar collapse
[Quote:]
“This is a summary of a documentary that aired recently on Dutch national television. The documentary was based on a script made by an economist who was assigned the task to make a ‘what if’ scenario about how the dollar could crash within 24 hours.”
March 20th, 2008 at 10:36
I think I’m missing something–there was nothing in the video about the dollar collapsing within 24 hours. There was a lot of unsubstantiated opinionating, and warbling about rising standards of living in Asia that don’t match my understanding of how the Chinese economy is structured. (I recommend reading James Fallows’ recent article that explained how the Chinese government is in effect hoarding the cash that represents the US trade deficit, and only letting a fraction of the riches trickle down to its citizens. If trade with the US collapses, I’m not sure where how their income would rise much farther.)
I’m worried about the dollar and the US economy, but the only part in this video that fed any of those worries was the brief interview with Cees Maas. That’s relatively scary. Of course it also predates the recent Fed actions.
March 20th, 2008 at 11:55
I didn’t read it as “within the NEXT 24 hours RIGHT NOW” but as “what would happen in the 24 hours after the dollar collapses or starts collapsing…”
March 20th, 2008 at 18:24
Right, that’s how I read it too. That’s not in there either, unless you count silent title screens that say “The Inevitable Collapse of the Dollar.” Oh wait, there one guy who says “the portfolio adjustment will be swift and severe.”
March 20th, 2008 at 18:26
Well, however you read it, I laughed out loud at the reactions of the people on wall street…
March 20th, 2008 at 19:19
Yeah, maybe it’s not just corporate greed that gets banks into these untenable positions. Never underestimate the power of stupidity…
March 20th, 2008 at 19:25
Now when you combine greed and stupidity….
March 20th, 2008 at 19:28
Experts are awful at forecasting - except, somewhat surprisingly, meteorologists. Now, imagine how good the rest are.
So, I will wait and see, but neither the video, nor the “wall street experts” are seers.
But my gut says it can turn pretty ugly for the dollar. Lets see how the crowd will judge.
March 20th, 2008 at 19:30
Forecasting is very difficult, especially if it involves future events.
March 20th, 2008 at 20:23
Absolutely - still, J. Surowiecki’s “The wisdom of the crowds” is an interesting reading. But I digress.
The conclusion of what kind of events will there be seems very likely.
IF the US collapses the Chinese will just start to increase the inner consumption, raising salaries, selling more at home, etc.