Comments on: The Media’s Shameless Bias To Try To Create Competitive Race http://weblog.sinteur.com/2008/06/the-medias-shameless-bias-to-try-to-create-competitive-race/ the Daily Irrelevant Sat, 22 Nov 2008 16:25:20 +0000 http://wordpress.org/?v=2.6.3 By: John Sinteur http://weblog.sinteur.com/2008/06/the-medias-shameless-bias-to-try-to-create-competitive-race/#comment-25981 John Sinteur Tue, 17 Jun 2008 17:51:26 +0000 http://weblog.sinteur.com/?p=24045#comment-25981 I'll send Andy a summary of your remarks... I’ll send Andy a summary of your remarks…

]]> By: Maarten http://weblog.sinteur.com/2008/06/the-medias-shameless-bias-to-try-to-create-competitive-race/#comment-25980 Maarten Tue, 17 Jun 2008 17:50:01 +0000 http://weblog.sinteur.com/?p=24045#comment-25980 "never uses just one poll" Bzzzt. Site says: "# If no other polls were taken within a week of the most recent one, only the most recent poll counts." Furthermore: "On the map, the states with a white center are those where the candidates differ by less than 5% and are certainly statistical ties." Oddly, the converse does not seem to be true, that states than are certainly statistical ties are shown white on the map. I get the feeling that either the description of the methodology is out of date, or statistical ties are not being reported correctly in the current map. “never uses just one poll”

Bzzzt. Site says: “# If no other polls were taken within a week of the most recent one, only the most recent poll counts.”

Furthermore: “On the map, the states with a white center are those where the candidates differ by less than 5% and are certainly statistical ties.”

Oddly, the converse does not seem to be true, that states than are certainly statistical ties are shown white on the map.

I get the feeling that either the description of the methodology is out of date, or statistical ties are not being reported correctly in the current map.

]]> By: John Sinteur http://weblog.sinteur.com/2008/06/the-medias-shameless-bias-to-try-to-create-competitive-race/#comment-25979 John Sinteur Tue, 17 Jun 2008 17:49:08 +0000 http://weblog.sinteur.com/?p=24045#comment-25979 Same reason why NC is called for McCain, even though McCain declined from the last known poll and the latest poll has them statistically even as well. If his method doesn't make sense, at least it appears to do so consistently :-) Same reason why NC is called for McCain, even though McCain declined from the last known poll and the latest poll has them statistically even as well. If his method doesn’t make sense, at least it appears to do so consistently :-)

]]> By: Maarten http://weblog.sinteur.com/2008/06/the-medias-shameless-bias-to-try-to-create-competitive-race/#comment-25978 Maarten Tue, 17 Jun 2008 17:43:17 +0000 http://weblog.sinteur.com/?p=24045#comment-25978 Well, I'm not going to dig into what's written on E-V about Andy's methodology right now, but take a look at the VA chart and tell me why he called VA for Obama when Obama declined from the last known poll, and the latest poll has them statistically even? Makes no sense to me. Well, I’m not going to dig into what’s written on E-V about Andy’s methodology right now, but take a look at the VA chart and tell me why he called VA for Obama when Obama declined from the last known poll, and the latest poll has them statistically even? Makes no sense to me.

]]> By: John Sinteur http://weblog.sinteur.com/2008/06/the-medias-shameless-bias-to-try-to-create-competitive-race/#comment-25977 John Sinteur Tue, 17 Jun 2008 17:23:22 +0000 http://weblog.sinteur.com/?p=24045#comment-25977 "the only recent VA poll is reported" - Andy never uses just one poll. That in itself may color his view, of course. “the only recent VA poll is reported” - Andy never uses just one poll. That in itself may color his view, of course.

]]> By: Maarten http://weblog.sinteur.com/2008/06/the-medias-shameless-bias-to-try-to-create-competitive-race/#comment-25976 Maarten Tue, 17 Jun 2008 17:16:12 +0000 http://weblog.sinteur.com/?p=24045#comment-25976 PS: a lot of the difference between E-V and CNN is that CNN reports a lot of states as toss-ups, and for a lot of those E-V's latest reported poll is 3-4 weeks old, i.e. from before the Dem primaries finished, i.e. pretty much junk. PS: a lot of the difference between E-V and CNN is that CNN reports a lot of states as toss-ups, and for a lot of those E-V’s latest reported poll is 3-4 weeks old, i.e. from before the Dem primaries finished, i.e. pretty much junk.

]]> By: Maarten http://weblog.sinteur.com/2008/06/the-medias-shameless-bias-to-try-to-create-competitive-race/#comment-25975 Maarten Tue, 17 Jun 2008 17:13:06 +0000 http://weblog.sinteur.com/?p=24045#comment-25975 Electoral Vote marked Virginia as being won by Obama, despite the fact that farther down the page the only recent VA poll is reported as 45%-44%, doubtless within the margin of error and thus should be a toss-up. Given that AST had VA as a toss-up until this poll, I'm a little confused about his criteria. Electoral Vote marked Virginia as being won by Obama, despite the fact that farther down the page the only recent VA poll is reported as 45%-44%, doubtless within the margin of error and thus should be a toss-up. Given that AST had VA as a toss-up until this poll, I’m a little confused about his criteria.

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