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What a remarkable coincidence. Just as the Senate begins debating Iraq policy, the White House releases a National Intelligence Estimate it falsely believes helps the president’s position, and then (careful not to step on the NIE headlines) announces a major terrorist capture. And wouldn’t you know it, the terrorist is on-message, too.

The highest-ranking Iraqi leader of al-Qaida in Iraq has been arrested and told interrogators that Osama bin Laden’s inner circle wields considerable influence over the Iraqi group, the U.S. command said Wednesday.

Khaled Abdul-Fattah Dawoud Mahmoud al-Mashhadani, who was captured in Mosul on July 4, carried messages from bin Laden, and his deputy Ayman al-Zawahri, to the Egyptian-born head of al-Qaida in Iraq, Abu Ayub al-Masri, said Brig. Gen. Kevin Bergner, a military spokesman.

“Communication between the senior al-Qaida leadership and al-Masri frequently went through al-Mashhadani,” Bergner said. “There is a clear connection between al-Qaida in Iraq and al-Qaida senior leadership outside Iraq.”

Why, that’s remarkable! Just yesterday, the collective conclusion of U.S. intelligence agencies was that al Qaeda and AQI were merely affiliated — the latter was inspired by the prior, and exists to resist a U.S. occupation — and then today we gain whole new insights that bolster all of Bush’s talking points.

How politically fortuitous for the White House! As David Kurtz notes, however, there are a couple of reasons to be skeptical.

First off, the capture took place two weeks ago but was not announced until today. Hmmm, have we seen that before?

And the detainee just happened to confess to a greater level of coordination between AQ in Iraq and Osama bin Laden’s global AQ, right in line with the official White House line that AQ in Iraq and AQ are one and the same. The White House is already highlighting the capture in its daily email to reporters. Go figure.

For all the talk that Americans are too cynical, I’m frequently reminded that when it comes to the Bush White House, I don’t think we can be cynical enough.